Esim - Was Alaska DDoSed?
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Erronius


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Was Alaska DDoSed? (Old article)
Posted 11 years ago by
Erronius    
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Hello everyone.

For nearly 2 weeks now I've heard more than a few people complain that the resistance war in Alaska was lost for a variety of reasons: that the server began to crash, or that there was a DDoS aimed at the server that selectively or disproportionately affected the anti-VVV forces at the very end of the battle. Of course, we can only argue opinion unless we actually look at the numbers, and hopefully the numbers speak for themselves. I do not think that there is any debate that the server rolled over and was dead AFTER the battle had concluded, the question is if there was any discernable affect before the end of the battle, and more importantly, if there was a discernible difference in impact between VVV and anti-VVV forces.

I must say beforehand that even with the numbers I will be presenting here, it will be difficult (if not impossible) to convince everyone. Part of the problem is that some people may propose arguments like: "Yes, that shows that we did damage, but if it wasn't for X, we would have done more!" and honestly, I doubt anyone has (or even could have) data to back that up either way. I do hope, however, that the numbers will illustrate one of 2 extremes: either there will be a noticeable difference between the two sides at T-10 or thereabouts (giving credence to claims that the battle was not fair or even), or there will not be a noticeable difference which would of course indicate that nothing was amiss (aside from, perhaps, the server beginning to die).

I must also thank and give credit to Phelps McManus who was able to provide the data that this article is based upon. His articles on Gold Usage and Clutch-i-ness in his newspaper, The Final Fnord should, I hope, allay any concerns that the data might be tweaked to arrive at a preconceived conclusion: Phelps has a stellar reputation, and I am simply presenting those numbers here.

Unless of course I make a mistake, in which case I apologize in advance. So without further ado, here is a screenshot of said data (click on images to enlarge!):



Much of what I will be looking at here will be based on the number of Attacker and Defender hits and not damage.

First, let's look at the hits for the USA and allies across the entire battle (the attackers):



And now for VVV and allies (the defenders):



We can start to see that VVV activity spiked severely within T-5. Here is the last T-20 with both sides together:



The 20m+ that VVV put down at T-3 broke the wall and reversed the damage gap at the last minute.

Here is the damage done over the same period of time (edit: I forgot to swap the sets so that this time VVV is in blue and the US in orange):



It's apparent that after T-3 that damage for both sides dropped. So, exactly what conclusions can we draw from this? I would argue that the server didn't go down completely prior to the conclusion of the battle, but it IS possible that both sides were affected by a steady degradation until the server crashed afterwards. This would explain why some people said that they were unable to hit before the close of the battle while other were able to - but clearly, damage dipped for both sides and there were still people hitting up until the very end.

What I consider possible is that the sudden influx of VVV within T-5 (and especially all of the hits at T-3!) may have sent the server spiraling out of control. We cannot say that the server was down completely however as people were still hitting, and it is clear that both attacker and defender saw their damage output drop precipitously within the last 2 minutes. I would say that no, it wasn't a DDoS (as has been said before), rather if anything it was a literal deluge of activity that most likely lead to an eventual overload with some people being affected before others. Many nations, in particular South Korea, do like to jump in without warning at T-3 or T-2 to flip battles, which isn't always something servers can easily handle. And when you look at the spike in activity from both sides, such as the damage measured in the graph below, it's easy to see how a last minute push could affect server stability.



If you still think it was some sort of VVV conspiracy, then I don't know what to tell you other than it's Friday night, and I'm going out. Have a good night Secura!



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