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"We're hopeful of a good harvest," said Gurcharan Singh, standing amid green seedlings in his fields here in the north Indian state of Haryana. The fast-growing hybrid variety of rice that he planted on 20 of his 80 acres requires about 25% less water than standard types.
Two decades ago, a bad monsoon could cut India's annual economic growth rate in half. Today, the impact is relatively minor, in part because new seeds and advances in drip irrigation and other agricultural technologies are helping to cushion farmers and the economy.
Changes in cultivation patterns—these days monsoon-dependent summer-season crops now account for 50% of agricultural output, down from about 66%—and the diversification of the economy away from farming has also reduced India's dependence on the weather.
Rainfall across northern India is about 33% below the normal level for this point in the monsoon season, according to the Indian Meteorological Office.
Still, India's production of unhusked rice is expected to be down just 1.2% from last year's level of 159.4 million metric tons, according to Hiroyuki Konuma, a Bangkok-based assistant director general of the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization.
India became the world's largest rice exporter in 2012, when it surpassed Thailand. Despite the drought, India is expected to export 9.4 million tons of the grain this year, according to the International Grains Council.
Rice traders say that while overall rice output is likely to be down slightly, output of higher-value basmati rice could exceed last year's levels as more farmers in the north plant less water-intensive basmati varieties. Favored by overseas buyers, basmati fetches higher prices, so total earnings from rice exports could even increase, exporters say.
Boys run through a waterlogged street after heavy monsoon rains in New Delhi on Saturday. Reuters
In Haryana, farmer Ishwar Dayal says this year he has planted a basmati rice variety known as Pusa 1509 that grows faster and needs less water than other types.
"I am glad that I took the chance," says Mr. Dayal. "Groundwater levels in our village have plunged and monsoon rains have become increasingly unpredictable."
The new rice, and earlier drought-resistant basmati hybrid, Pusa 1121, have significantly improved farmers' yields and incomes, Mr. Dayal and his neighbors in this grain-bowl northern state say.
"I have expanded my land parcel, bought a new tractor and my daughter is preparing for a college education in management," says Mr. Dayal. "All this has been possible with my earnings from the new variety of rice."
His friend and neighbor Ram Mehar bought a new car with the profits. His license plate ends with the number 1121.
The two new rice varieties were developed by scientists at the New Delhi-headquartered Indian Agricultural Research Institute charged with coming up with plants that would be more resistant to drought. The new varieties have sharply increased yields, about 5 tons to 6 tons per hectare (2.5 acres) compared with 3 tons to 4 tons per hectare.
The Pusa 1121 hybrid, which was introduced to farmers in 2003, makes up about 75% of India's total basmati exports. Pusa 1509 was developed by crossing Pusa 1121 with a high-yielding non-basmati rice, said Ashok K. Singh, a rice project leader at IARI. Mr. Singh said 1509 takes just about 110 to 120 days to mature, compared with the 145 days needed by previous varieties, including 1121. "With drought-like conditions this year, we know what difference this variety will make," says Mr. Satpal
Pusa 1509 was released to farmers last year, and Mr. Singh and other experts expect that it will gradually replace 1121 as the most-planted type of basmati.
With the onset of the monsoon rains delayed by more than a month this year in his part of the northern state of Uttar Pradesh, Satpal, a farmer who goes by one name, drove on his tractor all the way to the neighboring state of Haryana to buy a sack of seeds for the 1509 rice variety.
Corrections & Amplifications
Rainfall across northern India is about 33% below the normal level for this point in the monsoon season. A previous version of this article incorrectly said it was about 60% below the normal level. Ishwar Dayal is a farmer from Haryana. The previous version incorrectly said he was in Punjab. India's rice exports this year are forecast by the International Grains Council to be 9.4 million tons. The previous version incorrectly gave the figure as 9.7 million tons.
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