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calin


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【教學】股市公開說明書 (Event related)
Posted 10 years ago by
calin    
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最近遊戲內的新人朋友很多,有些人對於遊戲內的股市,均抱著一知半解的態度,或是認為這和現實投資模式相同。
這樣子在遊戲中進行投資,往往很容易造成誤解而虧損,所以在這邊,簡單地對遊戲內股市進行一些說明。



*** 遊戲中的股市騙局一再出現,你還在笨笨地選擇相信嗎? ***




遊戲中的股市常識

1. 股票,無論在現實或遊戲中,都是集資手段的一種。
2. 遊戲中股票的交易,一律只能經過公開交易市場交易。
3. 遊戲中股票不比現實,沒有退場機制,沒有公開財報,沒有審查監管,是集資還是套錢,自己判斷。
4. 遊戲中股票增值, 買的是對未來分紅利潤的期望,如果想炒短線,當我沒說。
5. 如果你佔的比例少,請注意炒作的股價是否適宜,因為可能很大機率,你只是在花錢投資別人夢想。

最後「請冷靜投資,並客觀進出場」,「請冷靜投資,並客觀進出場」,「請冷靜投資,並客觀進出場」。
因為很重要,所以上面一句話重覆說三遍,沒記住的同學,請自己出去走廊上罰站!



*** 歷史上的1288年的正式股權轉讓信件 ***




股票為什麼為漲跌

首先,股票最原始的目的,是藉由向大眾集資來擴大營運,而付出的代價就是公司的股利分派,也就是分紅。

投資者拿出資本,投資一家公司,從公司的經營分紅中,投資者可以獲利。
可以說,原始股東們是公司一開始的創業夥伴,一同共享公司經營的利潤和成長。

因此,投資股票最原始的獲利來源,是股利 ( 也就是公司的定期分紅 ) 。
但人有百百種,各種玩家的心態均不同,如同現實狀況,大部份的投機玩家買股票的目的,是為了賺取差價。



*** 對於股東們而言,分紅是最開心的時候 ***




讓我們單純地從「供給與需求」的角度,來看遊戲內的股價比較簡單:

供給 > 需求 => 股價下跌
供給 = 需求 => 股價持平
供給 < 需求 => 股價上漲

當股價價格高,但需求面依然強勁 ( 例:當人們認為所分的紅利,達到自己的預定報酬率時 ) ,股價就會走高。
而當沒人要買股票時,也就是有供給,但無需求時,股價就會開始走低。

買的人當然希望股票繼續漲,也就是將來會有玩家在更高價時,把股票買走。
( 比傻理論:每一位投資人,都覺得會有更傻的傻子在價格更高時把自己手上的股票買走 ) 。



*** 投資人心中總想著,我一定不是唯一的傻子! ***




不過,或許你會覺得很奇怪?
為什麼一再的會有人,出手買進價格越墊越高,而殖利率越變越低的股票呢?難道不覺得這是「騙局」?

其實,這些會讓你覺得奇怪的事情,在投機氣氛濃厚的市場中天天都在上演。
因為那種市場,早已經是「非理性市場」了,大家都覺得自己不會買在最後一手,大家都覺得股價會再漲。

不要覺得這些很奇怪,因為人在那種氛圍當中,都可能一起瘋狂,而忘記了投資股票的原始目的。
最後被套牢,或是為公司大股東賺取暴利而不知,都是常常有可能發生的。



*** 買菜都要慢慢挑了,買股難道是單純看心情買? ***




如何挑選好的股票

如果不尋求超額報酬,那麼不用被一些專業用語和分析所困擾,
請認清投資的原始目的,挑選殖利率較為穩健 ( 公司定期派發分紅,分紅利潤穩定 ) 的股票。

單純投資股票,長期獲利機會較大,但是需要耐心,而這通常也是玩家最缺乏的。

下面,簡單列出可以觀察遊戲中股票公司的重點:

1. 請挑選信任的股票公司經營團隊,及 CEO 。

遊戲中不比現實,沒有各種公開財報,沒有任何單位監管,也沒有各種管道能讓你確認各種細節。
如果遇上惡質的 CEO ,或是惡劣的經營團隊,只會讓你投資的錢一步一步,慢慢地變成他口袋裡的錢。
( 如過去的Delta公司事件 ,如今現在公司 只剩下空殼,相同的例子層出不窮,相信以後也不會少 )

2. 請注意該公司是否有定期分紅?大股東或公司本身,是否有可疑的行為?

派息分紅是否定期正常?是否有不正常發行股票,藉此來釋稀控股比例?
而 CEO 和大股東等人,是否有不正常金額的股票交易 ?股票市場的每日交易量是否活躍正常
公司經營業務內容與工廠是否過於單一?股票的實際價值和交易價值是否接近 ?是否有不正常的股價波動?

3. CEO 的控股程度是否正常?如果絕對控股,信譽是否可信?

目前在現實中,也很少有公司 CEO 持股大於50% ( 傳統家族企業例外,但也鮮見 ) 。
在這遊戲中,當 CEO 持股超過60% ( 投票的絕對多數 ) 時,對散戶的風險是相當大的
( 過去的專業股市老玩家 mwwong20h ,也已經在報紙中老實地點明了這點 )

因為在未來,無論 CEO 決定稀釋股份還是超額發行,散戶永遠是被公司 CEO 坑殺的份

尤其在這個虛擬的無監管的金融市場,
要認清一些不顧信譽炒高股價,然後賣空公司的 CEO ,實在是難上加難啊。



*** 這兒沒有股市投資秘笈,有的只是告訴你投資該如何小心 ***





最後,附上一句經典名言:

「投資一定有風險,基金投資有賺有賠,申購前應詳閱公開說明書!」




---

Day 466 案例分享:投資股市高風險,挑選公司需小心

昨天剛寫完股市公開說明書 ,其中也一再強調了「CEO 絕對控股」帶來的高風險因素,結果今天就有個不錯的範例。讓我們來仔細研究看看,這間知名公司的工廠轉移紀錄 看看,就會發現些有趣的地方,比如說:低於市價出售轉移工廠,而且公司目前零置產,所以等同於公司停止營運中。

當初售出股價為10g、5g、2g不等,依購買時間點,股民們各自配到1.4g、1.3g、1.3g ( 最後二次配息均趕上 ) 。簡單的說說和分析就是,目前該公司的散戶們多被套牢

該公司於 Day 454 時經報紙報導後成立 ,期間經歷發生了許多事 ( 紀錄1紀錄2 ) ,而在短短 12 天,成為目前這種狀況,可能是當初抱持信心進行投資的投資人們,所預料未期的。

今日 Day 466 的股價掉到近 0.01 gold ,正是對該公司目前的不穩定狀況的表現,市場對該公司能給予的預定報酬 ( 定期派發紅利 ) 的前景不信任。

老話還是一句,股市有風險,特別是散戶們,請慎選。
不過,人們向來是健忘的,但是紀錄者只要待著久,就會看到許多一再發生的情況,不勝枚舉。

你現在還是抱著單純的心思嗎?
小心你辛苦攢錢的投資,在無形中成為別人的嫁妝。投資有風險,多看後行。

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